Cross-Asset Comparison Engine

Use this page to validate whether the current macro thesis is confirmed, diverging, or breaking across assets.

Macro Alignment

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Regime Fit

Stable relationship

Driver

No clear leader

Reliability

High confidence

GOLD vs YIELDS remains one of the cleanest macro tests

USD vs JPY is strongest when rates still dominate

OIL vs GOLD helps separate inflation from fragility

AUD vs CHF is a strong cyclical-versus-defensive FX read

Manual Fine-Tune

Adjust the selected macro test

Left Asset

Regime: Real-yield / stress asset
Driver: Real yields / fragility / dollar

Right Asset

Regime: Macro transmission anchor
Driver: Growth / inflation / term premium / policy pricing

Start Here

Choose the macro thesis Marcus should validate

Rates Dominance

Test whether yields are still controlling macro price action.

FX Rate Differentials

Check whether FX is aligned with rate-spread pressure.

Risk Regime

Validate whether risk assets confirm or reject the macro backdrop.

FX Rotation

Use this only after the macro driver is clear to find relative strength.

Marcus Read

GOLD vs YIELDS

Relationship State

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Alignment

Stable relationship

Lead / Lag

Unknown leads (0%)

Interpretation

GOLD is starting to drift away from YIELDS. No clear leader. The macro driver is still visible, but transmission into price is weakening.

Best Use

Use this to validate whether rate dynamics are still driving price action.

Macro Implication: Avoid aggressive continuation trades. Wait for confirmation or rejection before adding conviction.

Trade Relevance: Trend trades are lower quality; mean-reversion or choppy behaviour risk is rising.

Invalidation

Invalidated if divergence rises above 40% and correlation structure weakens.

Divergence

N/A

Correlation

N/A

Confidence

N/A

Decision Engine

Marcus Action Plan

Signal

Transmission weakening

Conviction

High confidence

Trade Environment

Trend-friendly

Action

Wait for confirmation

Timeframe

Short-term

Macro Takeaway

GOLD is starting to drift away from YIELDS. No clear leader. The macro driver is still visible, but transmission into price is weakening.

Scenario Fit

Base case: partial alignment. Risk scenario: transmission weakens further. Tail risk: relationship fully decouples.

Trade Implication

Trend trades are lower quality; mean-reversion or choppy behaviour risk is rising.

Invalidation

Invalidated if divergence rises above 40% and correlation structure weakens.

Relationship Chart

GOLD vs YIELDS Relationship

Relationship Type

Weak / unstable

Correlation Trend

Flat

Timeframe

Short-term

Divergence Structure

Relationship Deviation / Stretch

Divergence Regime

Insufficient data

Latest Z-Score

N/A

Read

Not enough observations to evaluate divergence.

Stretch Zone

Normal

Correlation Regime

Rolling Relationship Structure

Regime

Insufficient data

Latest Corr

N/A

Read

Not enough observations for rolling correlation.

Workflow

How this page should be used

Compare two core macro assets before forcing a narrative

Use divergence when behaviour feels inconsistent

Use lead/lag when rates may still dominate

Let Marcus test whether the relationship still holds